15-16 Fall Budget Forecast Favorable With Concerns About Spring Enrollment
Our initial comprehensive 15-16 budget forecast is presented this month. The fall forecast is favorable as a result of:
8% growth in fall other NYS county enrollment
3% growth in fall out-of-state enrollment
209% growth in fall international enrollment
38% growth in winter enrollment
No increase in health rates in 2016 (5% budgeted)
Favorable TRS and ERS retirement rates
We have assumed for now in our revenue forecast that our flat enrollment target will be met for the spring semester, but have included a ‘risk’ of -8% and an ‘opportunity’ of +2% on our fund balance risk and opportunity page. Time will tell where we land for the spring semester – course registrations are currently nearly 7% less than last spring, but improved from the week before, when it was down nearly 10%.
The favorable budget forecast is adequate at this time to offset up to an 11% decline in spring enrollment. If our (flat) spring enrollment target is met, the favorable budget items will increase our fund balance from $3.5 million (7% budget) to $4.8 million (almost 10%) of budget, reaching the long term goal we set with our BOT to meet and sustain – the middle of the 5% to 15% range recommended by SUNY and GASB (Governmental Accounting Standards Board).
This comprehensive forecast will be updated every month for our BOT, management, and campus use.
Fall 2015 Student Enrollment Settles in at Budgeted (Flat) Enrollment FTE … with over a 4% increase in the number of students
Fall enrollment full-time equivalents have settled in at virtually the budgeted flat Enrollment full-time equivalents … just a .2% less than last year.
The number of students is up by 4.55% compared with last year at this time, thanks to record Fast Forward enrollment growth. Fast Forward enrollments are up nearly 37% compared to last fall, an increase of 39 FTEs. While Fast Forward students do not generate large tuition revenues, the additional state aid funding generated by the program proves to be very beneficial to the college.
Converting more of our Fast Forward students into new SUNY Broome students after high school graduation could play a large role in bucking the current downward trend of in county enrollments. Many of these students would not otherwise be at SUNY Broome, going onto other colleges after graduation. Not only could Fast Forward students help our declining in-county enrollments (down 5% this fall), they could play a major factor in the overall student success rate here at SUNY Broome.
5-Year Health Insurance Cost Analysis
A 5-year analysis of health insurance costs is included this month.
14-15 SUNY Annual Financial Report Filed
The 14-15 SUNY annual financial report was filed on time on October 30. The unreserved fund balance is $3.45 million – an amount equal to 7.3% of the net operating budget and in line with previous forecasts.
External Financial Audit Progressing
Audit field work has been completed.
Developed by R. Losinger, L. Allen, and J. Tillotson 11/20/15
Click below for the complete report: